The Real Ukrainian Threat to Russia

Russia's GDP per capita at PPP nearly doubled in Putin's first ten years in office. since then it's essentially stagnated. This data cuts off before COVID and the current war and sanctions. currently things are probably significantly worse. (Purchasing Power Parity compensates for changes in exchange rates and essentially measures what your income can purchase inside Russia, Because of the collapse in the Ruble the fall in nominal GDP (i.e. measured in US dollars at current exchange rates) is much, much worse. That overstates how much ordinary Russians have been affected - unless they want to travel abroad or buy imported goods.

The thing is though: Russia's population is still falling. Russians are not getting any better off.

Russia should be an economic and cultural superpower, a key exponent of soft power. But that would require an open society, free speech, free media and an end to massive corruption. None of that is possible while Putin remains in power.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita-ppp

Ukraine meanwhile remains significantly poorer than Russia - their current GDP at PPP is around US$12,000 versus circa $25,000 for Russia.

But since 2015, the Ukrainian economy has been growing faster than Russia, That's despite the impact of the Crimean annexation and the war in Donbas. The difference is especially marked in nominal terms. Because the Kryna hasn't collapsed like the Ruble, Ukraine's nominal GDP per capita has nearly doubled.

If we look at the HDI -which measures life expectancy and educational achievement as well as income at PPP - Ukraine is nearly on par with Russia. That's because Russia is much more unequal than Ukraine. Russia may have more rich people but most Russians live no better than most Ukrainians. That vast Russian oil and mineral wealth only benefits the Russian elite.

https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/UKR.pdf

Both Russia and Ukraine are viewed as being highly corrupt - but Russia is worse.

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

Russia's press is much less free than Ukraine's
https://rsf.org/en/ranking

So let me sum up: despite Russia's massive economic advantages, despite the incredible wealth of human intellectual capital in Russia; despite the Russian war on Ukraine, Ukraine is outperforming Russia and catching up with Russia.

When Putin speaks about Ukraine as the spearpoint of a western threat to Russia, if he's being honest it isn't a military threat: it's an economic and political threat to HIS vision of Russia as an illiberal, authoritarian, deeply unequal state.

If Ukraine were allowed to continue to grow its economy faster than Russia's, if it continued, painfully and slowly to become less corrupt and more free if Russians saw their "Slavic brothers" in Ukraine simply living better lives than them, they might ask if clinging to 19th century dreams of imperial power and national "glory" were worth it.

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