The Gulf monarchies are contemptible in many ways but at least they're trying to make some provision for a post-oil future. The Emiratis and Qataris are investing in a services economy as exemplified by companies like Etihad Air and Al Jazeera. The Saudis are investing in solar energy and in science and technology. The King Abdullah City of Science and Technology is emerging as a word-class research centre.
Russia has done virtually nothing like that. What money wasn't simply stolen and sent abroad was spent on a military machine that is now collapsing in Ukraine. Much of the money that was sent abroad will likely end up being confiscated and used to rebuild Ukraine.
None of this benefits the Russian people who, as the oil money runs out, will face increasing difficulty in developing an alternative economic base.
Think about the entirely deserved reputation the Gulf elites earned over decades for extravagance and waste.
Now think about the fact that Putin and his accomplices are even worse.
What about other major oil and gas producers?
Iran has, perversely, been forced by sanctions to develop a lot of relatively sophisticated import-replacement industries. If they survive increased competition when sanctions are finally removed that will help a lot.
Venezuela and Libya are already economic basket cases and are likely to stay that way. Nigeria isn't as badly off but it's close.
Australia, a massive gas and coal exporter, is looking to exploit our enormous renewable energy potential to export power and green Hydrogen.
Norway has a massive sovereign wealth fund to fall back on.
Then there's China and the US. They aren't massive exporters of fossil fuels but they are major producers and this gives them a major advantage over competitors such as the EU and Japan which are energy importers. That advantage is likely to be lost. (Americans upset about current fuel prices should note that prices around US$7-8 a gallon are common in much of the rest of the developed world.
the Russian economy is dominated by a clique of companies which may nominally be listed companies with majority shareholder ownership but are in fact controlled by oligarchs who are just proxies for Putin who use the assets of the companies as they please because Russian auditing standards and law enforcement are a joke, at least for them.
ReplyDeleteWhy invest in boring stuff like shipping containers, pallets and handling equipment to get stock from the freight yard to your warehouse and from your warehouse to your supermarkets if a. you can use that money to buy another mansion in Monaco and b. you have an effective retail monopoly because any serious competitors either have mysterious accidents or decide to sell you at a pittance meaning you can just jack up retail prices high enough that you can both pay shareholders a dividend AND embezzle a fortune.