IanGould

  Close to two thirds of Russia's oil refining capacity is off line. Production has fallen from around 7 million to around 3.3 million bpd. The refiners are saying that's because of problems exporting refined oil due to sanctions and payment problems etc. BUT, Russia's peace-time petrol consumption is around 3.6 million barrels per day. That's in peace time - when they aren't trying to supply a massive ground offensive in Ukraine. They may be able to get some petrol from Kakazhstan or other friendly states but I doubt it's enough to make up the deficit. This leads to a theory about the limited use of Russian airpower - they don't have enough avgas to support their entire fleet. Russian oil refineries like other Russian industries depend heavily on imported components even in peace time. This is why stuff like Shell withdrawing from Russia is significant. News report on Russian refineries idling capacity https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia...

 "Ukraine killed 14,000 civilians in Donbas" Well, no. Approximately 14,000 people died in Donbas as a result of the war there initiated by Putin.  But that included just under 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers and jut under 6,000 Russian and separatist troops. The 3,000 civilian deaths incude those killed by Russian forces. Not included are any deaths due to exposure or lack of medical care among the 1.5 million refugees who fled Donbas to unoccupied Ukraine  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas

  Why the US isn't going to cease to be the world's primary reserve currency any time soon and why if it does the Euro would likely replace it. The US dollar represents more than 50% of official foreign reserves around the world. The Euro represents around 15%. The Yuan (AKA the Renminbi) represents around 2.5%. The British Pound represents about double that and both the Australian and Canadian dollar aren't far behind the Yuan. https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

  The Gulf monarchies are contemptible in many ways but at least they're trying to make some provision for a post-oil future. The Emiratis and Qataris are investing in a services economy as exemplified by companies like Etihad Air and Al Jazeera. The Saudis are investing in solar energy and in science and technology. The King Abdullah City of Science and Technology is emerging as a word-class research centre. Russia has done virtually nothing like that. What money wasn't simply stolen and sent abroad was spent on a military machine that is now collapsing in Ukraine. Much of the money that was sent abroad will likely end up being confiscated and used to rebuild Ukraine. None of this benefits the Russian people who, as the oil money runs out, will face increasing difficulty in developing an alternative economic base. Think about the entirely deserved reputation the Gulf elites earned over decades for extravagance and waste. Now think about the fact that Putin and his accomplices...

 Semi-random Notes on Ukraine  1. If the attempt to take Hostomel airport and fly additional forces in had succeeded those predictions of a rapid Ukrainian collapse might have been correct. 2. That convoy that sat on the road outside Kiev for abut two week was a resupply convoy - lots of trucks, minimal tanks and artillery. It was supposed to link up with and resupply the forces landing at Hostomel. The reason the Ukrainians made minimal attempts to attack it was that it effectively blocked the highway, denying it to other Russian units. By now, the food and fuel they were supposed to be delivering has probably been exhausted feeding the convoy itself. Admittedly that still leaves ammo, spare parts etc. 3. The key difference between Putin's regime and, say, Kruschchev's is that the Politburo had the power to remove Kruschchev and they'd all risen to the top based, at least in part, on their own ability. I hate to keep using the H-word, but Putin is more like Hitler in that...

  Stepan Bandera was a Ukrainian nationalist. He spent most of the 1930's opposing Polish rule in western Ukraine. In 1941, when Germany invaded Ukraine he issued a Ukrainian Declaration of Independence which was heavily promoted in German propaganda. By 1942, Germany controlled most of Ukraine and consequently wanted Bandera to rescind his Declaration of Independence and support direct German rule. When he refused to do, Germany sent him to concentration camp where he spent the next two years. In 1944, faced with the imminent loss of Ukraine, the Nazis freed him and sent to Ukraine to organize resistance to reincorporation into the Soviet Union. In 2009 Yushkovych the outgoing pro-Russian President declared Bandera a "Hero of Ukraine". A subsequent pro-independence anti-Russian government revoked that title. A later attempt to restore that title was rejected in 2019 by the Ukrainian Rada after Zelenskkyy's party took control of the Rada. That's the essential tr...

  This is the insignia of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It's what's on the army fatigues President Zelenskyy wears, which idiots keep misrepresenting as a Nazi Iron Cross. While he never served in the military, Zelenskyy is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine and as such is entitled to wear it. The design was adopted a decade ago, well before Zelenskyy was elected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Emblem_of_the_Ukrainian_Armed_Forces.svg