We've been here before.

The Cominc War with China: https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FThe_Coming_Conflict_with_China%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1DhxbdNbWbMrLdCf8FIWnCcotILmTievQRkz3ZnY6M-neac28l7fHjPKc&h=AT1H-Y2_r17rBGSSIpz0LBeRxvN0VXXEIo4SYIW0_lthf9040HB-ExzIfkBII04HnF8mRma_JBab0rIEr6Ex2J9L16tuzjFIOY1yhXaaQZK0LHVLX8XlZTrlgLFWPDG4pA&__tn__=R]-R&c[0]=AT2R4W9w06T4CYxSI6lfTciYOVKy9nJ8QXLko_34wYnY0-wBoFgmLKkpsuMzHGZETeJy1e7G2kdydlIJc73DxEQUqWJ3_bj8ENrvLVmm678iFashhorpEyLYGUBBixy-tysbnCUBoCm2Apz4n_uWWntjl_A-gxqfHX0fgOh2eweea8cE9KUbElPdpG_rQC_cqA

The Coming War with Japan (1989): 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_War_with_Japan?fbclid=IwAR3Vh1U8HyTDj2VAZ0gfDsyH_pMtT3cgn2H63a7J5tJymPmvI7hOEBhd02g#See_also

The Cominc War with the Qing Empire: https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F8%2F87%2FYellowTerror.jpg%2F450px-YellowTerror.jpg%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0T52iCMqmBQ1vYxI7iLfCdG62QwTNCbgJ7zHNuvZYe4sGMSLBchqfEyfI&h=AT0FgBCBf7VvVJiwFCplp7Z5o5vbt0LhDnZhKhGz2-3mON02QsAbB3gySM2icFsIRQM7VhZAxaQFh--PC_oCns2GxpG4zFqYIRtOFtm8A6_k_UoH5Lqec0jIf-F4KWeuhQ&__tn__=R]-R&c[0]=AT2R4W9w06T4CYxSI6lfTciYOVKy9nJ8QXLko_34wYnY0-wBoFgmLKkpsuMzHGZETeJy1e7G2kdydlIJc73DxEQUqWJ3_bj8ENrvLVmm678iFashhorpEyLYGUBBixy-tysbnCUBoCm2Apz4n_uWWntjl_A-gxqfHX0fgOh2eweea8cE9KUbElPdpG_rQC_cqA


The coming war with 'The Rising Tide of Color"  https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FThe_Rising_Tide_of_Color_Against_White_World-Supremacy%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR19i5ntU9m6xqB8udOA7KpVyJXWFAKzew4l5TygosotElxapM6Y89FLeD8&h=AT033Fwx0INGYSqO7-7l40uSasvXoAyKNJoF5gNBBi2JKIlqZqoNXoCrvv3FaUol4ydu5NldEgGSqatU5Q06FOdB8YpI6W_k-sMQMgs17VggD-wRmeGHObDZO3Kl7bWv_w&__tn__=R]-R&c[0]=AT2R4W9w06T4CYxSI6lfTciYOVKy9nJ8QXLko_34wYnY0-wBoFgmLKkpsuMzHGZETeJy1e7G2kdydlIJc73DxEQUqWJ3_bj8ENrvLVmm678iFashhorpEyLYGUBBixy-tysbnCUBoCm2Apz4n_uWWntjl_A-gxqfHX0fgOh2eweea8cE9KUbElPdpG_rQC_cqA

Don't get me wrong, the PRC in 2022 is vastly more powerful than the Qing empire or 1980's Japan.
But when 25% of Australians think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent and only 5% of Taiwanese think similarly something else is at work.
There's a fundamental inconsistency in western attitudes to the PRC: on the one hand China is portrayed as an aggressor and war is portrayed as inevitable while there's a refusal to think about what such a war and its aftermath would involve.
We;re told blandly that China will launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan that will almost definitely fail and bring about the downfall of the PRC but that, for example, the PRC "wouldn't dare" use nuclear weapons or convert the war into a land-based war where they can use their full military force by joining north Korea in invading South Korea.
There's also a refusal to think about what would happen following a violent overthrow of the CCP regime and/or a Chinese military defeat. Tens of millions died in the last Chinese civil war. A repeat would probably be even bloodier especially since we know that immediately after the Tienanmen Massacre, hardline military leaders threatened dissident military units with nuclear weapons.
Think the world has problems with 20-30 million refugees? Try 200-300 million .
Think the US has a problem sourcing rare earth metals now? What happens when China that produces around 90% of global rare earth ores and produces closer to 90% of the finished metals is cut off from the world market for a couple of years?
That's before we discuss the economic impact of the world's largest exporter and second largest importer effectively being shut down. The supply chain problems of 2020 and 2021 will be nothign in comparison.
Australians who complain about "economic sanctions" even as our exports to China are at an all-time high need to ask themselves what would happen if that $75 billion in iron export ($25 billion of which ends up going to the Australian government) goes to zero.
Until the 1990's, Taiwan and south Korea were both repressive military dictatorships. They both reformed and became democracies with minimal bloodshed.
The chances of the PRC doing the same may seem remote but it's the only scenario that doesn't lead to massive bloodshed and economic disaster.
The question for the rest of us is how we help guide events in that direction.

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